NASCAR President Steve Phelps
appeared on SiriusXM NASCAR Radio last
week and cautioned fans not to expect “massive wholesale changes” in the 2021 Monster
Energy NASCAR Cup Series schedule. Despite stating that the sanctioning body
“probably won’t go to exactly the same number of race tracks (for) the exact
same number of events,” a segment of the sport’s fan base interpreted those
comments them to mean that few, if any changes are likely to be made.
As usual, the truth lies
somewhere in the middle. Some venue changes will almost certainly take place,
but a dramatic, chassis-off makeover of the MENCS schedule will be difficult to
accomplish, for a number of reasons.
The 600-pound gorilla of North
American motorsports is the National Football League. The NFL season begins in
August and hits full stride in September, October and November; just about the
time that NASCAR is engrossed in its playoffs. Some believe that NASCAR would
do well to end its season 30 days earlier, sidestepping the meat of the NFL
schedule.
To the sport’s television
partners, however, there is no better alternative programming during the NFL
offseason, preseason and early season than NASCAR. NASCAR is either No. 1 or
No. 2 in cable sports viewership every week, but if the racing season is
shortened, the sport’s TV partners will fill those empty weekend time slots
with something else. Whether it’s soccer, lacrosse, WWE, or MMA, someone is
going to cash a TV check on those weekends.
It might as well be NASCAR.
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Phelps: No "massive wholesale changes." |
Shortening the race season
will result in decreased TV revenue to teams, tracks and the sanctioning body.
That income will not be easily replaced, and race teams must pay salaries and
keep the lights turned on 12 months a year, whether they race 36 times
annually, or only 30.
The possibility of midweek racing
has also been discussed recently. A rain-delayed, 5 PM ET Monday start time at
Michigan International Speedway recently produced solid television ratings and
created that a limited schedule of such events might experience success similar
to the NFL’s lucrative Monday Night Football franchise. While that possibility
does exist – and is worth investigating -- in-person attendance on a Monday
night would almost certainly prove challenging.
Mainstream networks like FOX
and NBC air highly profitable primetime programs on weeknights. They are not going
to bump The Voice, 9-1-1 or The Prodigal Son for a NASCAR race, even in the
summer when those shows are in re-runs. Networks make a ton of money on Reality
TV and sitcoms, and are unlikely to pre-empt them, even for a dose of Monday
Night NASCAR.
Midweek racing will also
result in increased expense for teams, unless NASCAR is willing to clear the
previous and/or following weekend. It is unrealistic to expect teams to race on
a Saturday night or Sunday, then again on Monday at a different track.
Let’s talk a bit about moving
races.
For NASCAR, taking races from
a venue in an adversarial fashion will be a challenging endeavor. Look up the
name “Francis Ferko” and recall the ungodly amount of legal turmoil that ensued
the last time NASCAR attempted to unilaterally move a race from one track to
another. Any speedway that loses a multi-million dollar MENCS event against its
wishes will almost certainly take the matter to court, alleging collusion and
anti-trust. We have seen it before -- with years of negative headlines and
millions of dollars in attorney’s fees -- and it would absolutely happen again.
Even without the legal
roadblocks, abandoning longtime, historic facilities is a bad optic for the
sport. People still talk about Bruton Smith and Bob Bahre shutting down North
Wilkesboro Speedway and moving its races to other tracks; an event that occurred
nearly a quarter century ago, in 1996.
Speedway Motorsports, Inc. and
International Speedway Corporation are the two major track ownership groups in
the sport. They can (and do) move races within their respective portfolios with
relative ease. The remainder of the schedule belongs to the Mattioli Family
(Pocono Raceway), Dover Motorsports, Inc. (Dover International Speedway) and
Hulman and Co. (Indianapolis Motor Speedway).
For those groups to lose a
race, one of two things will almost certainly have to happen.
First, SMI or ISC can purchase
one of those venues and move its race(s) to other properties within their
portfolio. There is historical precedent for that sort of approach. Rockingham and
North Wilkesboro come immediately to mind, to name just two.
Indy, Dover or Pocono can also
forge an agreement to “realign” one of itheir races to another venue, sharing
the profits generated by that event.
Nostalgia is a big part of our
sport. NASCAR is second only to baseball in revering and reliving “The Good Old
Days,” a mentality that often results in modern-day fans longing for a return
to the speedways of their youth.
Unfortunately, those failed
speedways failed for a reason. Overserved markets, poor attendance, lack of
infrastructure and aging facilities where attendance did not justify major
capital improvements led to the demise of many former MENCS venues. If you’re
hoping for your favorite old-time track to return to the NASCAR schedule, ask
yourself “what has changed there since the track came off the calendar?”
In virtually every case, the
answer is “nothing.” In fact, most of the tracks in question are in worse shape
than they were when they fell off the schedule, making a return by NASCAR
unlikely, at best. The only possible exception at present is the Nashville
Fairgrounds Speedway, where SMI is currently undertaking a major campaign to
upgrade the facility and facilitate the return of NASCAR National Series
competition.
Race tracks and ownership
groups like ISC and SMI are not charities. They are for-profit organizations and
do not operate on emotion and nostalgia. Either a race track makes money, or it
goes away. That is – quite literally – the bottom line.
For these reasons and more, it
is unreasonable to expect a dozen or more tracks to be dropped from the 2021
NASCAR schedule, replaced by new (or resurrected old) facilities.
If you are expecting NASCAR to
eliminate all the so-called “cookie cutter” 1.5-mile tracks from its 2021 calendar,
you are destined for disappointment.
If you are hoping to see a
dozen short tracks on the schedule, you are destined for disappointment.
If you are hoping to see
Circuit of the Americas, VIR or your local, quarter-mile dirt track on the
schedule, you are absolutely destined for disappointment.
When you were a child and your
parents asked what you wanted for Christmas, you gave them a “Wish List” as
long as your arm, understanding that not everything on that list would appear
under the tree on Dec. 25. NASCAR’s recent promise to deliver some new goodies
under the 2021 scheduling tree inspired some wonderfully optimistic wished from
the sport’s fans; some of whom – unfortunately – won’t be happy unless Santa
crams an entire sleigh full of gifts down the chimney.
Last week, NASCAR’s Phelps
said, “We're going to listen to what the fans say.”
That seems like a pretty good
place to start, but it is not as simple as “wishing will make it so.”