COMMENTARY: What To Expect From The 2021 NASCAR Schedule, And Why

NASCAR President Steve Phelps appeared on SiriusXM NASCAR Radio last week and cautioned fans not to expect “massive wholesale changes” in the 2021 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series schedule. Despite stating that the sanctioning body “probably won’t go to exactly the same number of race tracks (for) the exact same number of events,” a segment of the sport’s fan base interpreted those comments them to mean that few, if any changes are likely to be made.

As usual, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Some venue changes will almost certainly take place, but a dramatic, chassis-off makeover of the MENCS schedule will be difficult to accomplish, for a number of reasons.

The 600-pound gorilla of North American motorsports is the National Football League. The NFL season begins in August and hits full stride in September, October and November; just about the time that NASCAR is engrossed in its playoffs. Some believe that NASCAR would do well to end its season 30 days earlier, sidestepping the meat of the NFL schedule.

To the sport’s television partners, however, there is no better alternative programming during the NFL offseason, preseason and early season than NASCAR. NASCAR is either No. 1 or No. 2 in cable sports viewership every week, but if the racing season is shortened, the sport’s TV partners will fill those empty weekend time slots with something else. Whether it’s soccer, lacrosse, WWE, or MMA, someone is going to cash a TV check on those weekends.

It might as well be NASCAR.

Phelps: No "massive wholesale changes."

Shortening the race season will result in decreased TV revenue to teams, tracks and the sanctioning body. That income will not be easily replaced, and race teams must pay salaries and keep the lights turned on 12 months a year, whether they race 36 times annually, or only 30.

The possibility of midweek racing has also been discussed recently. A rain-delayed, 5 PM ET Monday start time at Michigan International Speedway recently produced solid television ratings and created that a limited schedule of such events might experience success similar to the NFL’s lucrative Monday Night Football franchise. While that possibility does exist – and is worth investigating -- in-person attendance on a Monday night would almost certainly prove challenging.

Mainstream networks like FOX and NBC air highly profitable primetime programs on weeknights. They are not going to bump The Voice, 9-1-1 or The Prodigal Son for a NASCAR race, even in the summer when those shows are in re-runs. Networks make a ton of money on Reality TV and sitcoms, and are unlikely to pre-empt them, even for a dose of Monday Night NASCAR.

Midweek racing will also result in increased expense for teams, unless NASCAR is willing to clear the previous and/or following weekend. It is unrealistic to expect teams to race on a Saturday night or Sunday, then again on Monday at a different track.

Let’s talk a bit about moving races.

For NASCAR, taking races from a venue in an adversarial fashion will be a challenging endeavor. Look up the name “Francis Ferko” and recall the ungodly amount of legal turmoil that ensued the last time NASCAR attempted to unilaterally move a race from one track to another. Any speedway that loses a multi-million dollar MENCS event against its wishes will almost certainly take the matter to court, alleging collusion and anti-trust. We have seen it before -- with years of negative headlines and millions of dollars in attorney’s fees -- and it would absolutely happen again.

Even without the legal roadblocks, abandoning longtime, historic facilities is a bad optic for the sport. People still talk about Bruton Smith and Bob Bahre shutting down North Wilkesboro Speedway and moving its races to other tracks; an event that occurred nearly a quarter century ago, in 1996.

Speedway Motorsports, Inc. and International Speedway Corporation are the two major track ownership groups in the sport. They can (and do) move races within their respective portfolios with relative ease. The remainder of the schedule belongs to the Mattioli Family (Pocono Raceway), Dover Motorsports, Inc. (Dover International Speedway) and Hulman and Co. (Indianapolis Motor Speedway).

For those groups to lose a race, one of two things will almost certainly have to happen.

First, SMI or ISC can purchase one of those venues and move its race(s) to other properties within their portfolio. There is historical precedent for that sort of approach. Rockingham and North Wilkesboro come immediately to mind, to name just two.

Indy, Dover or Pocono can also forge an agreement to “realign” one of itheir races to another venue, sharing the profits generated by that event.

Nostalgia is a big part of our sport. NASCAR is second only to baseball in revering and reliving “The Good Old Days,” a mentality that often results in modern-day fans longing for a return to the speedways of their youth.

Unfortunately, those failed speedways failed for a reason. Overserved markets, poor attendance, lack of infrastructure and aging facilities where attendance did not justify major capital improvements led to the demise of many former MENCS venues. If you’re hoping for your favorite old-time track to return to the NASCAR schedule, ask yourself “what has changed there since the track came off the calendar?”

In virtually every case, the answer is “nothing.” In fact, most of the tracks in question are in worse shape than they were when they fell off the schedule, making a return by NASCAR unlikely, at best. The only possible exception at present is the Nashville Fairgrounds Speedway, where SMI is currently undertaking a major campaign to upgrade the facility and facilitate the return of NASCAR National Series competition.

Race tracks and ownership groups like ISC and SMI are not charities. They are for-profit organizations and do not operate on emotion and nostalgia. Either a race track makes money, or it goes away. That is – quite literally – the bottom line.

For these reasons and more, it is unreasonable to expect a dozen or more tracks to be dropped from the 2021 NASCAR schedule, replaced by new (or resurrected old) facilities.

If you are expecting NASCAR to eliminate all the so-called “cookie cutter” 1.5-mile tracks from its 2021 calendar, you are destined for disappointment.

If you are hoping to see a dozen short tracks on the schedule, you are destined for disappointment.

If you are hoping to see Circuit of the Americas, VIR or your local, quarter-mile dirt track on the schedule, you are absolutely destined for disappointment.

When you were a child and your parents asked what you wanted for Christmas, you gave them a “Wish List” as long as your arm, understanding that not everything on that list would appear under the tree on Dec. 25. NASCAR’s recent promise to deliver some new goodies under the 2021 scheduling tree inspired some wonderfully optimistic wished from the sport’s fans; some of whom – unfortunately – won’t be happy unless Santa crams an entire sleigh full of gifts down the chimney.

Last week, NASCAR’s Phelps said, “We're going to listen to what the fans say.”

That seems like a pretty good place to start, but it is not as simple as “wishing will make it so.”